Bush Losing Support Among Cuban Voters
Though he still enjoys majority support, new travel restrictions eroding support
For Polling Data Please Visit or Click HERE
MIAMI – A recently conducted survey by the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI) and the MirRam Group shows that the new Bush Administration regulations limiting travel and remittances to Cuba may be eroding the president’s support among his most loyal voters in Florida, though he still enjoys strong approval ratings.
While Florida Cubans voted 82% for Mr. Bush in 2000, 66% would support him today. The survey demonstrates that there appears to be a solid one-third of Cubans who are disenchanted with the president’s performance on the economy and the war in Iraq. It shows that the top issues for Cuban Americans are jobs/economy (18%), education (13%) and immigration (9%).
“Cuban Americans share basic working class, populist concerns like other U.S. Latinos. Their top priorities have to do with bread and butter issues,” said Antonio Gonzalez, WCVI president.
New restrictions on Cuban American travel and remittances to the island are opposed by a significant minority of Cuban Americans who also say they would be open to a candidate that favors unrestricted travel. “President Bush’s new restrictions have divided our community. A narrow majority supports the measures and a significant minority opposes them, especially the prohibition on emergency travel to Cuba,” said Alvaro Fernandez, president of the Cuban American Commission for Family Rights, a cosponsor of the survey.
“While intended to gather support, the President’s measures are causing his most loyal base to consider other electoral options,” added Gonzalez.
The research also suggests that younger Cuban Americans, and those who arrived after 1980, are not as attached to the Republican Party as previous generations providing an opening for the Democrats.
Following are some of the key findings of the survey:
- The discontent with Bush’s performance doesn’t necessarily translate into more support for John Kerry. Support for his candidacy is at 16%.
- A presidential candidate’s position on Cuba policy is considered “very important” for nearly half of Cuban Americans, especially older ones. But Cubans contradict themselves on the specifics of Cuba policy. Most say opposing Fidel Castro is important at the same time that they believe that current anti-Castro policies are not working and it’s time for a new approach.
- Cuban Americans are polarized on the issue of travel to Cuba to visit relatives, with a relatively even split across the board.
- Arrivals after 1980 and those born here disapprove of the increased restrictions on travel.
- There is strong disapproval to the proposal to limit travel, even for emergencies and death in the family.
A complete record of the toplines and crosstabulations of the WCVI-MirRam Group survey is available at www.wcvi.org.
The survey was conducted by telephone among 812 Cuban American registered voters and voting age citizens from June 29 to July 7, 2004, by trained bilingual interviewers. Respondents were drawn from four Florida counties containing 91% of all Florida Cubans (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough). The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error on sub-samples is larger.
WCVI, founded in 1985, is a paramount national Latino nonpartisan research and policy think tank with offices in San Antonio, Texas, and Los Angeles, California. The MirRam Group is a New York-based Latino-owned survey research firm. |
