Several polls released immediately after the November 2 election had Bush receiving up to 45% of the Hispanic vote. Some Republican analysts hailed the President's 'breakthrough' among the fast growing Latino population as the main reason for his victory, and as evidence that the GOP is poised to maintain its current dominance of American politics.
In poll results to be presented later this week at the National Press Club in Washington, Dr. Henry Flores, dean of the graduate school at St. Mary's University in San Antonio and a specialist in Latino voting patterns, says President Bush actually received just 32.5% of the Hispanic vote.
"Essentially, Latinos will be considered pretty much up for grabs," Flores told 1200 WOAI news. "Pretty much still in the Democratic column, although not as strong as African Americans."
The poll was conducted by the William C. Velasquez Institute, a San Antonio based non partisan organization which encourages election participation by Hispanics and studies Hispanic voting trends.
Flores said Mr. Bush received a larger share of the Hispanic vote, 35%, in his first Presidential run in 2000, and Reagan received 37% of the Hispanic vote in 1984.
The WCVI poll was conducted entirely of Latinos who cast ballots in eleven states with large Latino populations.
"These voters were coming out of the polls after having cast their votes, and they were given the surveys as they were leaving the polls," Flores said.
The National Election Poll and the Los Angeles Times poll conducted shortly after the election showed President Bush receiving 44% and 45% of the Latino vote respectively, but Flores says these polls were demographically flawed.
"Their sample of Latinos nationally was inappropriate," he said, pointing out that in the National Election Poll, 46% of Latinos sampled indicated they had a college degree. Roughly 10% of Latinos nationally have college degrees, and when only Latinos who voted on November 2 are counted that figure rises to 16%.
Flores said far from moving into the Republican column, the nation's Latinos are still very much 'in play' politically, and have not changed allegiance significantly since 1972.
The direction of the Latino vote is closely watched as Latinos are by far the fastest growing segment of the American population, and the number of Latinos voting doubled between 2004 and 2008 and will continue to grow rapidly.
