California Latino Vote Stays Pro Davis, Pro Democratic
For exit poll results, click here
(updated: Nov. 6th, 2002; 7:35 pm PST)
Latino voters mostly returned to Governor Gray Davis after flirting with the idea of voting for Republican candidate for Governor Bill Simon and Green Candidate Peter Camejo.
"Our exit polls show that Latinos voted 71.5% for Governor Davis. This is a decline from the 83% level of support Latinos gave to Davis in 1998. But it could have been worse. Late October tracking polls had the Governor at between 41% and 57% support among Latinos with as many as 33% undecided. Clearly, efforts by the Governor and his Latino supporters were somewhat successful in convincing Latinos to vote Davis", said Antonio Gonzalez, President of the William C. Velasquez Institute.
Record low statewide turnout seems to have effected Latino participation as well. Preliminary WCVI results show 43.5% Latino turnout, down from 55.5% in 1998 and 56.6% in 1994. "Many frustrated Latino voters stayed away just like other Californians", continued Gonzalez. "The highly negative campaign waged by Mr. Davis and Mr. Simon turned off Latinos, and the Governor's veto of AB60 -a bill authorizing drivers licenses for certain immigrants- made matters worse. Interestingly Green candidate for Governor Peter Camejo took over 7% of the Latino vote".
Latino Turnout in California Gubernatorial Elections
1994-2002
(numbers in thousands)
Latino Vote in California
(figures in the thousands) |
|
1994 |
1998 |
2002 |
|
Latino Total |
Latino Share |
Latino % Rate |
Latino Total |
Latino Share |
Latino % Rate |
Latino Total |
Latino Share |
Latino % Rate |
California |
949 |
11.0% |
56.6% |
1162 |
13.5% |
55.5% |
1110 |
16.2% |
43.5% |
Sources: WCVI Turnout Studies, 1994 - 2002
However, low turnout among non-Latinos makes the Latino share of votes cast even higher than normal at 16.2%. This was true even though the raw size of the Latino vote remained virtually unchanged compared to 1998 with 1,110,000 votes cast in 2002 compared to 1,162,000 in 1998.
"We may be seeing a slowing of Latino voter growth. This is the first election since 1990, where Latinos have not dramatically expanded the number of votes cast compared to the previous gubernatorial election," concluded Antonio Gonzalez.
As expected Latinos heavily supported Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante with over 79% support and supported progressive ballot propositions like prop 46, 47, 49 and 52 with overwhelming margins.
The William C. Velasquez Institute is a nonpartisan research and policy organization based in Los Angeles and San Antonio. The exit poll and turnout study covered 27 precincts across California and interviewed 478 Latino voters for a margin of error of 4.5%.
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