Notes

Outline

William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI)
National and Florida
Election Day Exit Survey

Exit Poll Briefing
www.wcvi.org

Final Results
December 1, 2004
*All data presented is election day minus absentee ballots

National Exit Poll


	The National Exit Poll covered 41 precincts in 11 states.

	The total sample size of Latino respondents was 943.

	20.1% of the surveys in the United States were conducted in Spanish.

WCVI Exit Poll

Slide 4

National Exit Poll:
Is this the first time you have voted?

National Exit Poll:
When did I first register to vote?

National Exit Poll:
Registration/Voting Data of the
National Latino Voter and Political Affiliation/Views



	How would you characterize your political affiliation?Are you a
	Democrat 57.5%
	Republican 24.7%
	Independent 10.4%
	Other/None of the Above 7.5%
	In what category, do you see your political views closest to:
	Liberal 25.8%
	Moderate 40.2%
	Conservative 25.4%
	Other 8.6%

Key Findings: A Comparison of Latino Bush and Kerry supporters


	Top 3 Issues: NATIONAL LATINO VOTER

Slide 9

Slide 10

Slide 11

Slide 12

Slide 13

Methodology


	The WCVI National Election Day Exit Poll of Latino Voters was based upon a proportional-stratified-random sample of 943 Latino voters who were interviewed upon casting their ballots on Nov. 2, 2004. The sample was drawn from 41 precincts taken from 11 states. 80% of all Latino Registered Voters reside within these 11 states.

2004 Latino Voter Presidential Preference: Bush


	National Election Poll (NEP): 44%

	Los Angeles Times: 45%

	William C. Velásquez Institute (WCVI):33%
	-findings indicate Latinos remained consistent in voting patterns since 2000.
	-both WCVI and an independent research source found President Bush received only 35% of national Latino vote

Slide 16

Why do the polls differ?


	Answer may be found in the methodologies utilized for sampling frame.
	If one compares the samples of all three polls, one will find why a difference exits between the polls’ respective outcomes.

Los Angeles Times sample flaws


	Constructed of 2 samples, a nationwide and California statewide
	Total sample = 5,154 at 136 polling places across the country
	3,357 or 65.1% were California voters interviewed at 50 polling sites.
	5% of the sample was Latino.

	FLAWS:
	Inappropriate to use 2 samples and then combine.
	Oversampled for California voters.
	Undersampled for Latino voters.

The National Election Poll (NEP)
sample flaws


	The National Election Poll was commissioned by a consortium of media corporations that included ABC, Associated Press, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC.
	The data were collected by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International who interviewed 13,110 individuals who exited 250 polling places around the nation.
	Latino sub sample was comprised of 1,031 individuals representing 7.8% of the entire sample.
	FLAWS:
	33% of the entire Latino sample was drawn from the Southern Region of the United States not following normal residential patterns.
	An overidentification of Latinos with Bachelor’s degrees at 46% .
	An underidentification of Latinos as Mexican American at 39.3%.

“Representativeness” of the WCVI Latino poll


	The Brookings Institute and Pew Hispanic Center identified four specific types of geographical areas where Latinos resided. The table below identifies the four areas and indicates what percent of the national Latino population resides in each of the areas.
	51.5% of all Latinos reside in Established Latino Metro Areas which are population centers possessing more than 500,000 individuals. 43% of the Latinos included in the WCVI sample came from these types of areas.
	WCVI under sampled the regions identified as Established Latino Metro Areas, Fast Growing Hubs and Small Latino Places and over sampled the New Destinations.

Florida Exit Poll: Unweighted
Overall Frequencies of
Election Day Latinos
Final Results
December 1, 2004

Florida Exit Poll


	The Florida Exit Poll covered 34 precincts in 7 counties.

	The total sample size of Latino respondents was 1021.

	43.3% of the surveys in Florida were conducted in Spanish.

Florida Exit Poll:
For whom did you vote in the Presidential race?

Florida Exit Poll:
For whom did you vote in your Congressional District race?

Florida Exit Poll:
For whom did you vote for in the Senatorial race?

Florida Exit Poll:
How did you vote for Amendment 1 (Parental Notification of a Minor's Termination of Pregnancy)?

Florida Exit Poll:
How did you vote for Amendment 5 (Florida Minimum Wage Amendment)?

Florida Exit Poll:
Is this the first time you have voted?

Florida Exit Poll:
When did I first register to vote?

Florida Exit Poll:
Demographic Profile of the
Florida Latino Voter


	Gender Male: 51.1% Female: 48.9%
	Age 18-24 14.0%
	25-29 10.3%
	30-34 11.6%
	35-39 11.9%
	40-44 12.2%
	45-49 11.0%
	50-54 9.1%
	55-59 5.6%
	60-64 5.2%
	65 or older 9.1%
	Birth Place Foreign Born 54.2% Native Born 45.8%

Florida Exit Poll:
Demographic Profile of the
Florida Latino Voter (cont.)


	Education Some High School 12.8%
	High School Graduate 26.2%
	Some College 26.9%
	College Graduate 20.0%
	Graduate Education or higher 14.0%
	Income Under $10,000 6.3%
	$10,001-$20,000 14.8%
	$20,001-$30,000 16.2%
	$30,001-$40,000 13.6%
	$40,001-$50,000 11.9%
	$50,001-$60,000 11.7%
	$60,001-$70,000 7.6%
	$70,001-$100,000 7.9%
	Over $100,000 9.9%

Florida Exit Poll:
Demographic Profile of the
Florida Latino Voter (cont.)


	Birthplace US 33.1%
	Mexico 3.9%
	Puerto Rico 12.7%
	Cuba 28.1%
	Central America 6.0%
	South America 9.1%
	Other Caribbean 4.5%
	Other 2.5%
	Ancestry Mexican-American/Mexican/Chicano 5.9%
	Puerto Rican/Boricua 16.6%
	Cuban/Cuban-American 41.3%
	Central American 9.0%
	South American 12.7%
	Caribbean 6.6%
	Latino or Hispanic 7.8%

Florida Exit Poll:
Ancestry

Florida Exit Poll:
Demographic Profile of the
Florida Latino Voter (cont.)


	Religion Catholic 61.0%
	Protestant 14.2%
	Jewish 3.3%
	Muslim 0.3%
	Other 11.3%
	No religious affiliation 9.9%

	Union Membership
	I belong or someone in my household does 21.8%
	No one belongs 78.2%

	Media Usage
	Spanish Language Media 46.6%
	English Language Media 53.4%

Florida Exit Poll:
Registration/Voting Data of the
Florida Latino Voter and Political Affiliation/Views



	How would you characterize your political affiliation?Are you a
	Democrat 43.8%
	Republican 41.0%
	Independent 9.7%
	Other/None of the Above 5.5%
	In what category, do you see your political views closest to:
	Liberal 26.2%
	Moderate 35.1%
	Conservative 32.2%
	Other 6.4%

Florida Exit Poll:
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

Florida Exit Poll:
Top Issues for Voting for President


	Issues Abortion 14.2%
	Bilingual Education 4.0%
	Crime/Drugs 3.6%
	Economy/Jobs 21.4%
	Iraq War 20.1%
	Gun Control 0.3%
	The Environment 1.2%
	Health Care 8.0%
	Immigration Policy 3.4%
	Public Education 2.8%
	War on Terrorism 10.9%
	Taxes 1.6%
	Same Sex Marriage 1.4%
	Other 3.7%
	Multiple Responses 3.5%

Florida Exit Poll: (Cuban vs. Non Cuban Hispanic Crosstab)
For whom did you vote in the Presidential race?

Florida Exit Poll:
Which one issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?