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City of Los Angeles 2001 Mayoral Analysis
Pre-Election Analysis
For the June 2001 City of Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff Election WCVI reported that according to Political Data, Inc. the Latino Vote was 20.63% of total registered voters in the city. This constituted approximately 316,074 Latino voters out of 1.53 million total voters. Latinos held a voting majority in three of the fifteen council districts (District 1, 7 and 14). Three additional districts fell within the range of 25 to 49% Latino registered voters (District 9, 13 and 15).
| City of Los Angeles, 2001 |
District |
Total
Voter |
Latino
Voter |
% Latino
Voter Share |
1 |
53,393 |
28,210 |
52.83% |
2 |
106,082 |
24,699 |
22.88% |
3 |
119,024 |
15,920 |
13.12% |
4 |
123,440 |
13,523 |
10.89% |
5 |
150,747 |
8,077 |
5.31% |
6 |
136,888 |
14,044 |
10.17% |
7 |
68,168 |
37,620 |
54.75% |
8 |
105,291 |
13,196 |
12.30% |
9 |
65,188 |
18,683 |
28.37% |
10 |
82,560 |
15,019 |
17.94% |
11 |
139,357 |
9,952 |
7.06% |
12 |
131,533 |
18,531 |
13.79% |
13 |
75,814 |
26,276 |
34.55% |
14 |
79,000 |
45,201 |
56.99% |
15 |
95,995 |
27,123 |
27.89% |
Total |
1,532,480 |
316,074 |
20.63% |
| Source: Political Data, Inc., |
Analysis of SVREP Non-partisan Campaign
Southwest Voter Registration Education Project (SVREP) ran a multi-faceted voter registration and education program throughout council districts, 1, 3, 7, 9, 13, 14 and 15. In a June turnout analysis, WCVI commissioned Political Data, Inc. to cross check all Latino registered voters contacted by SVREP with official election results. Political Data’s results showed that 61.43% of Latino voters targeted by SVREP, a universe of approximately 28,400, turned out to vote.
City of Los Angeles, SVREP Targeted Council Districts, 2001 |
City |
Districts |
Total
LA
Universe |
Total LA
Universe Voted |
%
Turnout |
Los Angeles |
1 |
4,340 |
2,810 |
64.75% |
Los Angeles |
3 |
2,309 |
1,268 |
54.92% |
Los Angeles |
7 |
5,156 |
3,287 |
63.75% |
Los Angeles |
9 |
3,577 |
2,345 |
65.56% |
Los Angeles |
13 |
4,521 |
2,775 |
61.38% |
Los Angeles |
14 |
5,074 |
3,110 |
61.29% |
Los Angeles |
15 |
3,423 |
1,852 |
54.10% |
Total |
|
28,400 |
17,447 |
61.43% |
| Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute |
This targeted effort produced a turnout almost twice as high as the citywide total voter average of 37.60%. Moreover, in councilmanic districts that SVREP targeted Latino voters the turnout ranged from 65.56% to 54.10%. That means that the SVREP targeted Latino Voters turned out at a higher rate than all voters, as well as, Latino voters at both the city council and citywide levels.
City of Los Angeles, Citywide Total and Latino Turnout, 2001 |
City |
Total
Turnout |
Latino
Turnout |
% Total
Turnout |
% Latino
Turnout |
Los Angeles |
576,825 |
136,735 |
37.60% |
43.26% |
| Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute |
Hahn vs. Villaraigosa
According to the Los Angeles Times Poll study #460 Antonio Villaraigosa received 82% of the Latino vote and subsequently James K. Hahn received 18% of the Latino vote. Also the poll states that with the heavy African American (80%) and Conservative (73%) support James K. Hahn was able to win the election decisively by a 53 to 46, or a margin of 40,180 votes.
Los Angeles Times Poll
(numbers in percentages) |
| Candidates |
ALL |
LIB |
MOD |
CON |
WHT |
BLK |
LAT |
ASN |
| James K. Hahn |
54 |
41 |
62 |
73 |
59 |
80 |
18 |
65 |
| Antonio Villaraigosa |
46 |
59 |
38 |
27 |
41 |
20 |
82 |
35 |
| Source: Los Angeles Times, Study #460 |
Had the Latino vote citywide turnout been 63.2%, more than 199,759 Latino would have voted. Assuming the rate of Latinos voting for Villaraigosa remains constant at 82% he would have received an additional 51,679 Latino votes. The chart below illustrates such a scenario. This sequence of events would have led to the victory of Villaraigosa.
City of Los Angeles, Citywide Latino Turnout Scenario
Latino
Registration |
Latino
Turnout |
Latino
Turnout |
New Latino
Votes for Hahn |
New Latino Votes
for Villraigosa |
316,074 |
63.2% |
199,759 |
11,344 |
51,679 |
2001 Election Scenario |
| Candidate for Mayor |
Votes |
Percent |
Diff |
| James K. Hahan |
316,135 |
49.99% |
|
| Antonio Villaraigosa |
316,290 |
50.01% |
155 |
| Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute |
Latino Voter Registration 2004 vs. 2001
As of the November 2004 Presidential Election the number of registered Latino voters in the City of Los Angeles has decreased to 314,925. This is a decrease from 2001 of 1,149 Latino voters. Although a numerically small decrease, it is important to note that the overall citywide voter registration fell from 1.5 million in 2001 to 1.38 million in 2004. This caused an increase in the Latino Voter Share from 20.38% in 2001 to 22.67% in 2004.
| District |
2001 |
2004 |
Total
Voter |
Latino
Voter |
% Latino
Voter Share |
Total
Voter |
Latino
Voter |
% Latino
Voter Share |
1 |
53,393 |
28,210 |
52.83% |
48,655 |
26,706 |
54.89% |
2 |
106,082 |
24,699 |
22.88% |
111,456 |
16,764 |
15.04% |
3 |
119,024 |
15,920 |
13.12% |
115,227 |
14,382 |
12.48% |
4 |
123,440 |
13,523 |
10.89% |
110,676 |
12,959 |
11.71% |
5 |
150,747 |
8,077 |
5.31% |
149,468 |
6,223 |
4.16% |
6 |
136,888 |
14,044 |
10.17% |
62,811 |
28,015 |
44.60% |
7 |
68,168 |
37,620 |
54.75% |
64,078 |
33,938 |
52.96% |
8 |
105,291 |
13,196 |
12.30% |
94,930 |
14,966 |
15.77% |
9 |
65,188 |
18,683 |
28.37% |
54,659 |
20,030 |
36.65% |
10 |
82,560 |
15,019 |
17.94% |
81,733 |
15,849 |
19.39% |
11 |
139,357 |
9,952 |
7.06% |
142,234 |
13,380 |
9.41% |
12 |
131,533 |
18,531 |
13.79% |
121,731 |
15,807 |
12.99% |
13 |
75,814 |
26,276 |
34.55% |
68,060 |
25,388 |
37.30% |
14 |
79,000 |
45,201 |
56.99% |
76,960 |
43,139 |
56.05% |
15 |
95,995 |
27,123 |
27.89% |
86,443 |
27,379 |
31.67% |
Total |
1,532,480 |
316,074 |
20.63% |
1,389,121 |
314,925 |
22.67% |
| Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute |
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